Browsing around Redstate over the past few weeks, I have noticed what seems to be an uptick in interest for the Wisconsin Senate race. With Bayh’s departure in Indiana creating by most counts an eighth pickup opportunity for the GOP in the Senate, many of us have started to seek the next opportunity hoping that Senate control can be in play after all. As we scan the map looking for our next target, most eyes rest on one of two places: Wisconsin and Washington state. While I believe Patty Murray is indeed vulnerable, particularly if Dino Rossi steps forward, right now I wish to focus your attention at the prospect in the Badger State.

This article will refer frequently to Scott Brown and the lessons of the Massachusetts special election. Brown’s win in Massachusetts was a game changer. It proved that no Democrat is safe. It showed that the conservative movement can successfully apply the strategies of Internet fund-raising and get out the vote efforts that the left have used against us over the past two cycles. While technically an Open Seat, the Massachusetts special election provides the model that will need to be used for defeating incumbents this year.

Feingold is vulnerable.
This may seem obvious to some, but it bears repeating. Feingold is vulnerable. Period. Notice how the statement says nothing about Tommy Thompson. While Thompson does run better than Feingold, and runs better against Feingold than the two Republicans currently in the race, Feingold is vulnerable to just about any perceivable candidate at this point. Furthermore, while Thompson has the advantage of name recognition, it is far from certain whether he would be the best candidate for us in the long run. With the Democrats choosing to double down on their overwhelmingly unpopular plans for the health care system, the Republican party will do best to have candidates who are thoroughly against the measure and can hammer their opponent with that fact.

Health care will be an issue.
Thompson’s position on the health care issue is not one that would allow comfort for most conservatives. Last October, Thompson teamed up with former Democrat House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt in a public statement urging the Senate to pass comprehensive health reform. The statement expressed support for “community-based health teams,” asking leaders of both parties to “work with President Obama” to make the government takeover of the health care industry a reality in 2009. Many of the strongest gains made by the Republican party over the past year have been with disgruntled independents, libertarians, and fiscal conservatives unhappy with the policies of Washington as epitomized by this health care debate. It was the chief reason we have Senator Scott Brown out of Massachusetts. The Democrats, their desire for power outweighing basic campaign strategy and common sense, insist upon keeping this issue at the forefront of the national debate. This has the potential to work very much to our benefit as campaign season begins, but only if we nominate candidates who stand forth in clear opposition to this vastly unpopular measure. Thompson could begin as a strong candidate, but his appeal could wear quickly as the people of Wisconsin realize that his position on Obamacare is little different than that of Russ Feingold.

Feingold has money.
This is the primary argument against pursuing this, or any opportunity to unseat an incumbent without first having a candidate with his own name recognition. Russ Feingold had about three million dollars cash on hand as of the first of the year, about ten times the amount held by both announced Republican candidates combined. Going forward, the ability of Feingold’s opponents raise money will be crucial for their efforts to introduce themselves statewide. Nevertheless, 2010 is not going to be a year in which money will have such a powerful impact for incumbent candidates. Democrats are peddling a very damaged brand. With a struggling economy and unpopular legislation in the news, spending millions to tout one’s “accomplishments” in the Senate is far from a sure path to victory. This is the post Scott Brown era, in which it has been shown that all the insider resources in the world will not protect even the most entrenched incumbent or pseudo-incumbent (as was Coakley) against a candidate with a strong message, a willingness for hard work, and a connection to the people.  Candidates such as these naturally generate enthusiasm in a populace frustrated with the closed ears and minds inside the Beltway, and with the enthusiasm comes the money needed to expand that message. Turning once again to the Massachusetts race, the Brown campaign managed to raise more than fourteen million dollars in the final three weeks before the election. Do the work and the money will come.

Too liberal for Wisconsin.
Russ Feingold is far too liberal for Wisconsin. He is one of the most liberal members of the upper chamber despite being from a state that leans only slightly toward Democrats (Cook PVI D+3). Feingold has managed this largely through the luck of never having to seek election during a truly Republican year. His best performance was in 2004, a year that saw GOP pickups off of Bush’s coattails in the south that did not touch the midwest, in which Feingold took 55% of the vote. His greatest appeal to moderates thus far has been on issues of reduced spending and corporate welfare. Needless to say that this will not work nearly as much to his advantage in the era of Porkulus.

The good news.
Well, first of all, in can be said that Tommy Thompson is an experienced politician, and reading the handwriting on the wall for public support of government run health care, could run to distance himself from the issue and Feingold if he does enter the race. The real good news, though, is that we can do this without Thompson. A PPP poll from November and a Rasmussen poll from last week showed Feingold getting only 47% against each of two announced opponents, both relative unknowns. In the Rasmussen poll, Feingold topped Terrence Wall, 47-39 and Dave Westlake 47-37. In the post-Scott Brown era, numbers like these cannot be overlooked. In the political atmosphere that saw Brown come from a similar deficit to win in the far more liberal state of Massachusetts in the span of two weeks, conservatives would be mistaken to withhold their active support from either of these men, instead hoping for a sudden surprise entry.

Of course, there is another factor in the Scott Brown analogy. Before he was the surging underdog with the growing bankroll and the well-wishes of conservatives nationwide, Scott Brown was the dynamic, hardworking candidate who drove his truck statewide greeting the people and addressing their concerns. Unseating an incumbent requires that sort of effort from a candidate under just about any circumstance. Are Wall and Westlake the types of candidate that are willing to give the sort of effort necessary to step up and take this seat from Russ Feingold?

Meet Terrence Wall.
Terrence Wall is a married self-made business leader from Dane County, around Madison. Wall is the founder of a successful real-estate and development firm known as T. Wall Properties. Along with his steady construction work across the state of Wisconsin, Wall has also started a capital fund that aids others in starting and growing their businesses.

Education: B.A. Economics, Wisconsin-Madison
M.S. Real Estate Appraisal and Investment Analysis, Wisconsin-Madison

Positions:

Obamacare: opposes. Favors “free market steps” to lower health care costs.

Economics: opposes deficit spending.

Social issues: Pro-life, opposes gay marriage

Supports twelve-year term limits for those in Congress and the Senate.

Supports strong 2^nd Amendment rights.

Financially, Terrence Wall’s campaign had $350k cash on hand as of Dec. 31.

Wall has a steadily updated blog discussing his campaign and the issues affecting Wisconsin and the country. As one would expect, it thoroughly hammers Russ Feingold and his extreme left position on Obamacare. http://www.terrencewall.com/index.php/blog Wall’s campaign is also on Facebook and Twitter.

Meet Dave Westlake.
Dave Westlake is a married Army veteran and small business owner from Watertown, Wisconsin - about midway between Madison and Milwaukee. He is a young devoted Christian and a member of the NRA.

Education: B.S. Environmental Science and Engineering, West Point
M.B.A, Chicago

Positions:

Obamacare: opposes. Instead favors a free-market approach, including tort reform and the freedom to purchase insurance across state lines.

Economics: Favors low taxes, small government.

Social issues: Pro-life, opposes gay marriage.

Environment and Energy: Opposes Cap and Trade. Supports domestic drilling, coal and nuclear power.

Supports twelve-year term limits for those in Congress and the Senate.

Supports strong 2^nd Amendment rights.

Westlake has a weekly updated blog focusing on his campaign and the issues affecting our federal government. http://blog.davewestlake.org/ Westlake’s campaign is also present on Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube.

Head to head each candidate has their advantages. Westlake’s campaign, at least at first glance more thoroughly describes his positions on more issues and is very organized across the Internet. Wall, meanwhile has a significant advantage in money, and a more regularly updated blog that may further define his positions over time. Both are quite conservative in the positions that they promote on their respective sites and both start as an underdog against Feingold, but well within reach considering their relative obscurity compared to the longtime Senator.

This race can be won, Redstate, and we don’t necessarily need Tommy Thompson to do it. What is necessary, though, is dedicated support for either, or both, of the candidates currently in the race. While Thompson’s entry or even Neumann’s could yet change the dynamic of the race, there is no reason for us to hold back, passively waiting for an unannounced candidate to make a surprise entry. We have two viable, potentially strong candidates in Wall and Westlake, both in competitive positions against Feingold and with plenty of time to introduce themselves to the people of Wisconsin. All of the information on them that I set forth here came from their campaign sites, of which I only grazed the surface. Check these men out.

In case you haven’t seen it yet, there’s a new Rasmussen poll out and the numbers are pretty striking. A near 20 point advantage for Rubio means he has this all but sewn up barring a major reversal or gaffe. Given that he delivered a nice performance at CPAC, he can expect grassroots and other cash to flow into his coffers so Crist cannot dump a deluge of ads and expect no response. So this brings up the inevitable question: What will Charlie do now?

I hate to agree with Kos, but months ago he said that Rubio would wipe Crist out and that the governor’s only option to win was to run as a Democrat since a three way split would not be enough to stop Rubio from winning. I didn’t see anyone else in the blogosphere, left or right, making this claim last fall, so grudgingly full credit to him. But no, I will not link to his diary showing that statement because I don’t want him to have any more traffic.

The numbers, quite frankly, bear this out to be true. The now famous Miami Herald poll demonstrated that Crist simply does not have enough appeal to win as an independent candidate. His only path to victory, then, is to flip to the Democrat side where Kendrick Meek would not put up much of a fight. Or would he?

Crist appeals to the center, I guess, but Florida is a closed primary state. Meek is a liberal from south Florida who would crush Crist in the black vote and probably pick up a substantial segment of the Hispanic vote as well along with the liberal activist vote. That leaves Crist with a tough road to hoe quite honestly. It’s tough to win any Democratic primary by appealing to the right flank, though if anyone can do it in Florida it’s Charlie Crist.

So what will Chameleon Charlie do now? Your guess is as good as mine. The guy is a political survivor and has a very quiet mean streak. But it has to be evident to him that he will not win the Republican senate primary in August. I don’t think he can politically survive a flip to the Democratic side as he would be seen as a total opportunist and he doesn’t have the coalition to run and win as an independent.

I think Crist will wait until the next non-Rasmussen poll comes out on this and then weigh his options. And the most likely scenario for him to survive for another day is for him to drop out of the senate race and jump back into the governor’s race where he’d handily beat Bill McCollum in the primary and spank Alex Sink. Just watch it happen by the end of March.

Chuck DeVore appeared last night on FOXNews with Glenn Beck talking about the role of government and his race for the U.S. Senate. While reiterating his policy of not endorsing candidates, Beck declared: “You intrigue me.” Beck had Assemblyman DeVore on the program for two segments (they will play sequentially):

Early on the in the program Glenn listed the litany of liberal interest groups who have given Chuck DeVore a failing grade for his hundreds of votes in the California State Assembly. As he went down the list he handed Chuck his jar of jelly beans, a bottle of water, and even the infamous red phone. Chuck intoned: “I don’t want the red phone” to which Beck chuckled: “They never call…”

Beck seem unabashed sharing his affinity for the Assemblyman especially as Chuck related his feelings about the history of the progressive movement.

Bottom line: Chuck DeVore is indeed the tea party candidate and, as George Will declared on Sunday, will be the Republican nominee.

Justin
Director, New Media
DeVore for California

I waited patiently for a non-Kirk push poll to come in from Illinois, and the first post-primary poll gives Kirk a 6 pt lead over Giannoulias there. This state is now BARELY GOP Pickup, and I think it will waffle for some time back and forth between leaning red, blue, and undecided. Still, who would’ve thought last January that the Republicans are likely to pick up both Biden and Obama’s old seats?

The announcement of Coats spices things up in Indiana, but without polling data, it is hard to move the scale there. Bayh has $12 million on hand and Coats has to deal with explaining why he retired rather than face Evan in 1998. There’s also that Harriet Miers debacle too.  If however his local popularity and growing voter anger are strong enough, Bayh should start worrying.

Everyone looking at this map is thinking the same thing. We’re THREE SEATS AWAY from taking the Senate.

I bet everyone is also thinking another thing- what will it take to get Rossi, Pataki, and Thompson to just throw their hats in the ring?

Ranking by likelihood of flipping to GOP:

Delaware 99%

North Dakota 99%

Arkansas 90%

Nevada    75%

Pennsylvania 70%

Colorado  66%

Illinois 66% (up from 50/50)

Indiana45% (up from 35%)

New York(G) 25%

California 15% (down from 25% due to dust up between Fiorina and Campbell)

Wisconsin 15%

Washington 10%

Connecticut  5%

I am going to attempt to update this every 2-3 days as polling data trickles in.

Much has been said on a few blogs about the poll showing a lead for pumpkinhead in Wisconsin if he so chose to challenge Feingold. As he is undeclared, I am not changing the status until either an existing GOP contender polls close, or Tommy Boy actually jumps in.

We have another hypothetical poll as well: Washington state. Even Murray cannot seem to avoid some potential trouble in November, though the match-up proposed against Rossi is iffy at best (like the ballots they “found” costing him the gubernatorial election in 2004). Still, to reflect an ever going trend of Democratic vulnerability, the Washington Senate seat moves down just a tick in the Democrat’s column.

I propose we may even see a similar trend out of Schumer’s in New York if PPP/Rasmussen/Sienna/SurveyUSA/etc bothered to do a poll there.

Currently the only Democratic/Democratic-siding seats that are a lock are:

Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, Hawaii, Vermont and Connecticut.

At least according toRasmussenFor those of you who are too lazy to click the link, he’s up 47-43 on Feingold. I know that the good folks over there have been fairly generous to our side this cycle, mostly because of the likely voter models they have in place. They’ve been spot on so far, but the electorate can always change between now and election day.

For what it’s worth, I’m not really a Tommy Thompson fan. He’s a squish on a number of issues, but he did do a good job as governor of the Dairy State years ago and instituted a model for welfare reform that was copied by the GOP Congress and President Clinton in the mid 90s. Thompson has also been a big time advocate for school choice and instituted a pretty decent program in Milwaukee to help low income families send their kids to whatever school, public or private, that they felt is best. That would be a nice direct contrast to Obama’s tearing apart of a similar program in DC.

So yes, Thompson is not a rock-ribbed conservative and no, Wisconsin is not Massachusetts where we really do need to settle for candidates on the center-right. But even in this cycle I don’t think Feingold is vulnerable unless we bring in a big name. Even if Rasmussen is off by a few points, the bottom line is that Thompson starts out on even footing with Feingold and has history in the state. I doubt very much being HHS Secretary under Bush will drag him down. What say you RedStaters… draft Thompson?!

Figured I would update if and when we had any new polling for Indiana, and lo and behold, Bayh isn’t so untouchable anymore. While Pence has dropped out, Hostettler polls now within the margin of error and thus this seat is now BARELY Democratic. More polling out of Pennsylvania courtesy of Franklin  & Marshall shows Specters ridiculous decision to abandon the GOP last year won’t save him from a November booting- in LIKELY voters, he is getting crushed by Toomey, whom he was beating handily just six months ago.

We should expect more polling from Missouri and Illinois, and perhaps some hypothetical match-ups out of Washington and Wisconsin soon. By the way, Missouri based on the latest poll would show Blunt and thus the GOP ahead (Rasmussen pegged him beating Carnahan by 6 last week), however as this is the ONLY poll showing a significant lead for the GOP (and all other recent polls still show Carnahan with a 1-3 pt lead), I will leave it as a TIE until we get some verification from another pollster.

By the way, where the heck is Survey USA?

From the diaries by Erick. This is MASTERFUL.

Update: I was interviewed by Amy Oliver at KFKA 1310, an AM Talk Radio station in Greeley, Colorado about this diary. You can listen to the archive here. I also plan to update the section on the Governor’s race in the near future now that Bill Ritter has announced he is no longer going to seek re-election.

Colorado is a beautiful and diverse state with a rich and vibrant history. The landscape varies from the corn fields on the Eastern Plains to the Rocky Mountains which boast 50 fourteeners (mountains over 14,000 ft. elevation), to the lush green Western Slope. It was from the top of one of those fourteeners, Pike’s Peak (from the top of which on a clear day you can see twelve states), that Katharine Lee Bates wrote,

O beautiful for spacious skies,
For amber waves of grain,
For purple mountain majesties
Above the fruited plain!

Colorado’s history dates back at least to the Anasazi of Mesa Verde. The Overland Trail went through Colorado. Just northwest of Fort Collins, wagon ruts can still be seen. This pioneering spirit still lives in many within the state. Colorado is rich with natural resources, including minerals, shale oil, and natural gas. Farming and ranching are still large industries here. Our ski resorts are famously known, possessing some of the best powder in the world. Colorado sits along the Continental Divide, and for this reason water is our most precious resource. The rivers that flow from Colorado provide water for a number of other states.

Colorado’s political landscape is unique, in that it is a microcosm of voting behavior of the nation as a whole, usually leading the national trends. When I moved here almost ten years ago, the Governor’s Mansion, both U.S. Senate seats, five of seven U.S. Congressional seats, and both State Senate and House chambers were controlled by Republicans. Today, the situation is completely reversed and the Democrats are in control. Fortunately, due to the Democrats’ mismanagement in Washington and Denver, we have the opportunity to turn the tide back in our favor. Colorado is a frequent battleground for political groups trying to sway the state one direction or the other.

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